The future of Linux

[Jerry Feldman]

Thanks. This should give me some direction to complete that section. I
also found a few sites and quotes. 
On Sat, 31 Jul 2004 20:55:06 -0400
Jon maddog Hall <maddog at li.org> wrote:

> Jerry,
> 
> gaf at blu.org said:
> > I'm doing a presentation on Linux for a group on Monday night and I
> > am struggling with "The Future of Linux" topic. I tend to look at
> > things more in a what is rather than a what will be perspective.
> > Could you help me out a bit on this, possibly by pointing me to a
> > couple of sites that I could borrow from.
> 
> Jerry, I can not really point you to any "sites" that might have this
> information, I can only give you some guidance as I see it.  I am
> copying the gnhlug group on this, since I think it is a fine topic for
> additional information and discussion.
> 
> Since the kernel group has not clearly defined what will be in 2.7 or
> even opened up a 2.7 pool at this point, it is hard to say what the
> future of"Linux" (the kernel) will be.
> 
> Indeed, with the announcement of the sale of the world's largest
> Supercomputer as being a 10,000 Itanium processor SGI Altix system
> running Linux, and the recognition of Free and Open Source Software
> being embedded in a watch, it is hard to see what significant changes
> will be done to the kernel.  Nevertheless, I am sure that eventually
> there will be changes.
> 
> Some of the things that are going on that will definitely affect the
> market is the recent work done by IBM and SuSE on meeting the Common
> Criteria Security models and achieving CAPP/EAL3+ security
> certification, and the fact that they have made all of this work, code
> and test suites open and available to other distributions (think "Red
> Hat") and hardware vendors to use as they wish. Whether you appreciate
> the security certification process or not, the fact that the Linux
> kernel is now certified allows it to meet one more "checkmark" on a
> purchase form, and this is then reflected in additional purchases and
> business in support organizations for those secure installations. 
> Secondly, you have to applaud the openness of IBM and SuSE with the
> way they did this work.
> 
> Some of the virtualization work going on that allows people to have
> better control of processes' use of hardware facilities is also good. 
> I go to some of the events such as OLS, LinuxTAG and others and see
> things like User Mode Linux (UML), and Cooperative Linux, as well as
> the many spin-offs of Knoppix stuff, and this really excites me (I am
> a geek, I get excited by stuff like this).  The Knoppix effort was a
> real enabler, allowing people to make their own specialized releases.
> 
> Nevertheless, I think (and Linus has also stated this) that the real
> future of"Linux" is outside of the kernel, in the upper layers....and
> therefore is not the future of "Linux", but the future of "Free and
> Open Source".
> 
> The work that continues to be done in deployment of Beowulf systems,
> the library work to handle multiple threads, the new X work being done
> by Keith Packard and others, GNOME, KDE, and all that is really great.
> 
> The audio/video projects, Free and Open databases, even Free and Open
> ERP and CRM projects are taking Free and Open Source far beyond what I
> ever thought it would be.  Even more important, people are FINALLY
> beginning to understand the real value and benefits of Free and Open
> Source Software.  Take a good, hard look out on SourceForge.net at
> some of the projects out there.  Take a look at some of the commercial
> databases like Ingres and Interbase opening up their code and you can
> see where the development of code is going.
> 
> In our LUG this week I made the observation that software was moving
> from a product based solution to a service-based solution, with the
> service being along the lines of a "brain surgeon" in ability,
> training and compensation. Several of my members felt that software
> has ALWAYS been a service industry, with closed-source proprietary
> products being a detour along the way.
> 
> This collaborative development effort is even beginning to affect
> other areas of intellectual industry.  People are beginning to
> question whether it is REALLY worth while to hold their ideas secret,
> or whether it is worth more to collaborate freely and move forward
> more rapidly then they could ever do by themselves.
> 
> I believe the second one will win, and in more areas than just Free
> Software. I believe that Richard Stallman will be able to smile at a
> dream accomplished.
> 
> I hate predicting the future, for it is very hard, but I do believe
> that 2004 and 2005 will be the years of the Free and Open Source
> desktop, 2006 and 2007 the years of "GNU/Linux at Home" (with
> associated games), and by 2010 we will have enough GNU/Linux systems
> to declare "World Domination".
> 
> After that I will be doing my retirement project:
> 
> 	maddog's mansion of microcomputing and microbrewing
> 
> Warmest regards,
> 
> maddog
> -- 
> Jon "maddog" Hall
> Executive Director           Linux(R) International
> email: maddog at li.org         80 Amherst St. 
> Voice: +1.603.672.4557       Amherst, N.H. 03031-3032 U.S.A.
> WWW: http://www.li.org
> 
> Board Member: Uniforum Association, USENIX Association
> 
> (R)Linux is a registered trademark of Linus Torvalds in several
> countries. UNIX is a registered trademark of The Open Group in the US
> and other countries.
> 


-- 
Jerry Feldman <gaf at blu.org>
Boston Linux and Unix user group
http://www.blu.org PGP key id:C5061EA9
PGP Key fingerprint:053C 73EC 3AC1 5C44 3E14 9245 FB00 3ED5 C506 1EA9
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