OLPC - "eaten my homework"

[Jeff Kinz]

On Tue, May 30, 2006 at 07:17:03PM -0400, Ben Scott wrote:
> On 5/30/06, Jeff Kinz <jkinz at kinz.org> wrote:
> >>> The cost of producing a good textbook, even if the licensing/royalties
> >>> are zero, is very high.
> >>
> >>   Source?  Numbers?  Hard data?
> >
> > Family in the biz.  textbooks are a very different market that any other
> > printed matter.  They have stringently high costs because their
> > construction and content is different than anything else except coffee
> > table books., and yet their printing runs are tiny so the one-time costs
> > must be amortized over a much smaller number of volumes than regular
> > books.  That raises the per unit cost.
> 
>   By "content", it isn't clear if you mean physical materials or
> subject matter.  

Both

> If it's the later, the costs are the same for both
> printed and ebooks, as I already pointed out.  

That does it. I'm calling my Sister!  :-)

But you're not correct about that.  The layout and proofing work are
different for each form of media, and paper media, being far more
constrictive, requires a great deal more effort.  This information
comes from a book development editor who works with both
kinds of media.  She's also my sister.  :-) 
(My sister can out-edit your sister....:-)


>   As I said, I've never printed a text book.  But I have been involved
> in support of efforts to produce low-volume copies of local manuals
> and brochures, and if you do it in volume, prices can get very low.

I've gotten manuals printed before too.  Its not that low.  Especially
when you factor in the costs of the time spent by all the people who
work on getting it done.  Hi-tech biz'es do not track the hours that way,
but publishing companies have to.

>   Let's assume, for the sake of discussion, ten "books" of 200 pages
> each, and 500,000 copies of each.  That's a total of 1,000,000,000
> (one billion pages).  This is probably a big underestimate, but it
> gives me some numbers to work with.  Based on the price progression
> seen at http://www.nationalcolorcopy.com/ (first vendor found via
> Google that published prices), we can expect 0.005 (one-half cent) per
> page.  (I'd actually expect a better deal for a project of this
> magnitude, but I wanted to cite a source.)  That works out to $1 per
> book before binding.

Ben - There is a major error here: the price you cite here : 0.005
(one-half cent) per page is the cost of the printing and does not
include the cost of the paper.  The minimum cost for the paper available
with that printing is 8 cents per page..  Call their 800 # and ask.  

That moves you to $16.50 per book, and you have no design, no proof, no
layout and no binding yet.

Also, textbooks are (except for grade 1-3) are typically much larger
than 200 pages.  On the order of 400-800 is more normal for grades 4-12.

So - 400 pages instead of 200 = $33.00 per book.

Another problem with your scenario is that each country will have to
have the book in its own language, and sometimes each region will have
its own language, like India. Add the further complication that
political and religious pressures may cause each city or state in a
region to require a different version of the book. This happens 
for the foreign country of Texas here in the US. :) 

Yes it is possible to produce manuals for a lower cost but manuals are
not built for service in elementary public schools.  The construction
standards for a public school textbook are very different than that of a
manual used by a single professional.

Your manual will sit on the shelf most of its life.  Occasionally
someone may pick it up and leaf through it, read a few pages and put it
down again or someone may even read through it extensively before it
goes back on the shelf.  Most manuals will spend their entire life in
air-conditioned comfort on a shelf in an office building.  No humidity,
no sunlight, no dust no dogs no kids.

A public school textbook on the other hand has to survive in one of
the worst environments known to mankind: hostage to an American public
school student!  THE HORROR!  OH THE HORROR!  :)

A public school textbook will spend most of its life being jostled about
in the bottom of a knapsack or bookbag or backpack.  It will be slammed,
kicked, dragged, spilled upon, work as a casual weapon, and be owned by at
least ten different students over the course of a decade before its life
ends.  During that time, the binding MUST NOT FAIL!.  The paper must not
warp from humidity, the pages must not rip, etc. etc.

What Goes into a textbook? 

To reduce weight but keep strength the paper used for the pages is a
thin, (to keep the weight down), high rag content, (for strength),
coated paper,(resist spills, good contrast, high "inkability"). Not
bible paper, but still expensive stuff.  The number of pages is
generally around 400 to 600, or higher for high school texts.

The binding is "case bound" which means that the pages are individually
stitched together in sections, then sections are stitched together, and
then the entire mass is glued into the cover.  The cover is a heavy-duty
pasteboard covered with a material designed to resist tearing and
scratching.

The cover's job is to protect the inside of the book, while not getting
destroyed itself.  If you have ever chucked your favorite O'Reilly
publication into a bag and carried it around for a week at a conference
you'll understand why the cover is so important.  Inside that bag a
paperbound book quickly becomes dogeared and pages can be disastrously
wrinkled. Finally textbook texts are usually printed in two colors (some
use more) where one color is used for emphasis. Some manuals do this but
most do not.

Layout and proofing:  Many electronic volumes don't get "layout" done at
all.  They are presented sequentially and no decisions about "whats on
the opposing page", "how far away is the referenced illustration of
table" ever need to be made. After Layout is made the author reviews and
comments and delta's the layout. Layout is labor intensive for books with
lots of graphics.  Proofing - of course, SHOULD be done for
both types.

According to the American Publishers Association one-third of the cost
of textbooks today is the cost of actually physically producing the
textbook, including the cost of materials, printing, binding, design,
layout, and writing.  Currently public school textbooks rang in cost
from 50 to $100 per copy.  For example my nephew's high school calculus
text, which has been used for 11 years, has 1000 pages and a replacement
cost of $90.  So the production cost for my nephew's book would be
about $30.  Using the range above, the cost to produce textbooks with
no profit margin for the publisher or the distributor or the bookstore
would range from about $16 to about 33 Dollars per book. So the trade
even point is between 3 to 5 books, and of course with your version they
don't get a computer with the books. Or a lamp. :)

(take out the Authors pay (about $24,000) to originate the content,
although most textbook companies don't have Authors any more, they have
committees) (yes, seriously. Its politics, of course it doesn't make
sense.)

Some web pages to look at:
http://www.suhsd.k12.ca.us/elh/library/introduction.html
http://www.bookspot.com/know/textbook.htm
http://www.ncu.edu/estimated_cost_of_attendance.asp
http://www.psusd.us/SARC/2004/DH.pdf
http://web.bvu.edu/organizations/tack/asp/story.asp?id=1521

> >>   And, in most ways, 500 megabytes.  The mesh network is a nice
> >> concept, but I don't really see it spanning the continent of Africa
> >> any time soon.
> >
> > http://www.green-wifi.org/
> 
>   Um.... yah.  I notice there doesn't seem to be anything about going
> beyond a community-sized network.  To get to the net, it assumes
> there's a nice, big, wealthy university nearby providing you the net
> feed ("RoofNet")

No - Nothing in their plan requires a university nearby.  There is
more to the web site than the one page.  Each region will require some
kind of internet link.  In some parts of the world this has been
accomplished using dedicated long range Wi-Fi links.  Most important is
the ability to email. (IMHO)

>   Again, this is merely reality check.  Community wifi mesh networks,
> a definite possibility.  Contient-spanning ad-hoc networks, not so
> much.
and no Continent spanning ad-hoc networks have been proposed. 
( Continent spanning ad-hoc network?! icky-poo! )

>   How much of the target audience has enough netfeed to enable even
> the community network model of Internet access?
None - thats not the model, the plan needs one link per region.

> > 100 text books, composed, printed, bound, distributed and delivered for about 1 dollar
> > each.
> 
>   Composing the text is *AGAIN* the same cost regardless of printed or
discussed above. (no)

> e- book.  Likewise, distributing and delivering those laptops.  Plus
> the costs, 

Actually the books will cost more to distribute.  They will
weigh a great deal more than the laptop.


> both capital and reoccurring, of running the netfeed out to
> everyone (for your infinite storage).  

This is the one very important issue I think.  And it applies
everywhere, even much of the physical US has the same issue.

>   Printing and binding are valid cost concerns.  See above.
> >> Or maybe the laptops just end up being used as light sources.  ;-)
> >
> > Worlds most expensive Lamp!  :)
> 
>   While that remark was tongue-in-cheek, it's not entirely facetious .
>  There are various cases of similar misuse or misunderstanding of
> technological gifts to "less developed" cultures.  

Actually its not facetious at all.  Use as a lamp in the home has been
accepted (converted?) as one of the functions of the devices.
A happy accident.

One way you get a small amount of information, on very heavy paper,
that you can't read at night (no lights) and nothing else.

The other you get loads more information, access to a global
community and a functioning computer with educational software,
and...... A lamp to read by at night. :-)


The downside?  Having to filter access to pron.


-- 
Jeff Kinz, Emergent Research, Hudson, MA.
Speech Recognition Technology was used to create this e-mail